He had a monster season last year and I have seen him go from 2nd - 8th in drafts. He is a big time slugger on a great team but I hesitate on him for two reason:
1. He is only going to be in his second full season. Pitcher will adapt, he strikes out a lot already and that could become more of an issue a la Adam Dunn
2. If he is truly this good, people might just stop pitching to him. From his teams point of view that might not be that bad...but from a fantasy perspective, if you take him in the first round you expect first round numbers...even if he puts up second round numbers.
Am I overreacting?
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Do you guys want the truth...or do you want to see me hit some dingers?!?
The thing with Howard is, he had such a good year last year that he is bound to have a let down. With that said, a letdown could still mean a huge year. Pitchers want to avoid the guy but Chase Utley makes it tough to pitch around him too much. Just off the top of my head I can say that I would want Pujols and David Ortiz ahead of him. But when looking for that big time bat I can't think of anyone else that would definetly be ahead of him. I mean the guy did almost hit 60 HRs last year, so I'd say the risk with him is worth the reward.
A similar risk on a guy is like a Lance Berkman who went for 45 and 136 last year and has gone over 40 only one other time in his career. Is he gonna have another year like last or his more typical 32ish and 100ish?
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"In big games, the action slows down for him where it speeds up for others. I've told him, 'I'll trade my past for your future.'" -Reggie Jackson on Derek Jeter
